AI Commitments Monitor
The demand-side commitments that back compute credit, tracked from the SEC filings of the five largest AI buyers. Two footnote quantities — in plain terms, rent (leases signed on data centers still under construction) and bills (contracts to buy chips, power, and capacity at stated minimums) — plus the revenue backlog on the other side of the same contracts, and the support instruments written around them. Every figure carries its window and traces to an accession number. As of 2026-07-22; next expected update: Microsoft 10-K FY2026 (fiscal year ended June 30, 2026), expected late July 2026.
§ The monitor
| Company | Leases not yet commenced | Purchase & other commitments | Revenue backlog (RPO) | Support instruments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta 10-Q Q1 2026 (period 2026-03-31), acc 0001628280-26-028526 | $182.9B Mar-26 +79.1 vs Dec-25 ($103.8B) | $237.7B Mar-26 +106.6 vs Dec-25 ($131.1B) non-cancelable; +~$24B added Apr-26 (subsequent event); excludes $14.72B contingent cloud capacity | — no compute revenue backlog | $28B Mar-26 RVG threshold, unconsolidated Louisiana venture (recorded liability $0; max exposure $46.0B) |
| Alphabet 10-Q Q1 2026 (period 2026-03-31), acc 0001652044-26-000048 | $75.6B Mar-26 +17.1 vs Dec-25 ($58.5B) | $332.4B Mar-26 +183.3 vs Dec-25 ($149.1B) MD&A total incl. open purchase orders; $138.0B short-term; note-level fixed/minimum supply+energy+content = $232.7B | $467.6B Mar-26 +224.8 vs Dec-25 ($242.8B) $462.3B Google Cloud; Q1-26 definition change adds ≤1-yr contracts (~$7.3B); incl. multi-gigawatt TPU supply agreements | $28.4B Mar-26 data-center backstops as credit derivatives, notional (was $16.9B Dec-25, $0 Dec-24); +~$15.3B Apr-26; framework up to $33.3B; separately $9.0B energy financial guarantees |
| Microsoft 10-Q Q3 FY2026 (period 2026-03-31), acc 0001193125-26-191507 | $196.6B Mar-26 +103.9 vs Jun-25 ($92.7B) | $142.1B Jun-25 $109.95B purchase (take-or-pay + open POs) + $32.1B construction; 10-K table only — first refresh lands with the FY26 10-K | $633B Mar-26 +258.0 vs Jun-25 ($375B) $627B commercial (+99% y/y), weighted-avg duration ~2.5 yrs | none disclosed as a separate category |
| Oracle 10-K FY2026 (period 2026-05-31), acc 0001193125-26-277521 | $260B May-26 +255.9 vs May-22 ($4.1B) terms 15–19 yrs, commencing FY27–FY29; includes a lease with $3.3B guarantee of the lessor's borrowing (matures Sep-26) | $13.3B May-26 unconditional, primarily data-center power; +$19B cloud-infrastructure purchase commitments signed after year-end (subsequent event) | $638B May-26 +500.0 vs May-25 ($138B) ~12% expected to convert to revenue within 12 months; increase attributed to 'certain significant cloud contracts,' unnamed | $3.3B May-26 guarantee of a lessor's borrowing within the lease pipeline |
| Amazon 10-Q Q1 2026 (period 2026-03-31), acc 0001018724-26-000014 | $106.4B Mar-26 +10.0 vs Dec-25 ($96.4B) | $122.6B Mar-26 +18.9 vs Dec-25 ($103.6B) $103.77B unconditional purchase obligations + $18.81B other commitments | $364B Mar-26 +120.0 vs Dec-25 ($244B) AWS, contracts >1 yr, weighted-avg life 5.5 yrs; growth driven by OpenAI arrangement expanded $100B to $138B | none disclosed as backstop/guarantee; related: $20B milestone-linked Anthropic financing facility, $35B OpenAI equity commitment letter |
$B, undiscounted, as disclosed. Windows differ where issuers' fiscal calendars and disclosure practices differ and are labeled on every cell; deltas are shown only against the same issuer's prior disclosure of the same quantity. Microsoft's purchase and construction commitments update annually (10-K only). Oracle's prior lease figure is fiscal 2022, the earliest comparable disclosure.
§ What these quantities are
Leases signed but not yet commenced are rental agreements on facilities — overwhelmingly data centers — that have not been delivered. Nothing appears on the balance sheet until the landlord hands over the building; at commencement, a lease liability and right-of-use asset are recognized. The footnote is therefore a forward calendar of balance-sheet lease liabilities, with terms disclosed as long as 30 years. Purchase and other commitments are contracts to buy goods and services — cloud capacity, chips and servers, power — reported at the non-cancelable portion or contractual minimum, in the issuers' own language: "non-cancelable," "take-or-pay," "unconditional… enforceable and legally binding." Remaining performance obligations are the same class of contract seen from the seller's side: contracted future revenue not yet recognized. Support instruments are credit support written around other parties' financings — payment backstops (Alphabet accounts for these as credit derivatives at fair value), residual value guarantees, and guarantees of lessors' borrowings.
Why a compute-credit record tracks them: these commitments are the collateral of the offtake-backed lane of the compute credit tracker — a compute provider's contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer are that customer's purchase commitment seen from the other end, and the market prices their quality. The launch analysis, with the full decomposition, conditionality language, and counterparty detail, is Breaking Down Big Tech's $1.65 Trillion "Hidden Debt".
Sources: latest and prior filings per issuer as listed in each row, verified against the documents on EDGAR. This page is updated within days of each new 10-Q/10-K from the covered issuers; figures are as-disclosed and are not restated between filings. Nothing here is a solvency opinion, a forecast, or investment advice.